What it is not
read this before the numbers.
OUTRIDER is a set of research and monitoring tools with a paper trading desk. It does not trade real money, it does not promise results, and several of its ideas have already been measured and found wanting. This page says which.
01Paper only
- There is no order execution, no wallet signer and no custody in this version. The desk never asks for a private key.
- Paper results include fees, slippage, priority tips, latency and failed transactions, but they are still simulations. Real fills, real queues and real market impact can be worse.
- The paper bankroll, paper equity and paper PnL in the dashboard, console and Telegram are not money and not earnings.
02What the measurements say
These results are written in the code and its comments by the author. They are observations on past samples, not forecasts.
| Idea | Result | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidation-map entries (trade toward a cluster, fade a cascade) | No entry edge after costs, walk-forward and against random timing. Use the map as a risk tool. | src/lab/liqbt.mjs; console description of the Liquidation map |
| Trend following | Protects in falling years and lags in rising years; it can trail simply holding BTC for long stretches. | Console description of Trend & leverage; trend-backtest |
| Memecoin lanes (moonshot, graduation, revival, smart) | Unproven. None has a demonstrated edge; each exists to be measured on its own trades. | Console description of Memecoin lanes; src/config.mjs |
| pump.fun entry filters | None of 288 filter combinations tested was positive after costs out of sample; the filters make the paper book lose less. | Comment on pump.minUniqueBuyers in src/config.mjs |
| Jev forecaster | Independent backtests the author cites found AUC around 0.5 and losses after costs. The desk keeps it in shadow mode until its own promotion rule is met. | README.md; jev-report |
| Leverage | Higher profiles had deeper drawdowns on the author's sample (23.9 %, 31.9 %, 43.5 % for safe, growth, aggressive). | README.md; leverage-backtest |
Run the tools yourself on your own data. If a result disagrees with this table, trust your run over this page.
03How to judge any result
- Fewer than 30 trades is not evidence. The report says so.
- Look at the result without the luckiest trades. If it vanishes, it was luck.
- Prefer out-of-sample numbers:
sweep,wallets,fitandevolveall judge on data they were not chosen on. - Count your tries. The more configurations you test, the more of them pass by chance;
evolvereports the probability of backtest overfitting for this reason.
04Not financial advice
Nothing in OUTRIDER, its output or these docs is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Memecoins, leveraged perpetuals and prediction markets can lose most or all of the money put into them, quickly. Some of these markets and data sources are restricted in some countries; you are responsible for using the software lawfully where you are.
05If you ever build live trading
Live execution is not included. The author's plan, for reference only: live trading only after paper results survive the report's "without top trades" check over weeks; a local burner keypair for Solana swaps holding only the trading bankroll; a Hyperliquid agent key that cannot withdraw; the same EV gate and limits; no server signer and no custody. Building it is your responsibility and outside item support.
06Data you see
Wallet addresses, positions and trades shown by the desk come from public blockchains and public APIs. The whales.wallets and hlcopy.watch lists start empty; add wallets you choose yourself. Self-reported leaderboard PnL is not verified by anyone.