Research & analytics
what worked, on which data.
One command runs every backtest and wallet measurement the desk has and saves them for the dashboard's Research pane: TREND against BTC, the liquidation-map strategies against random entries, the wallet book, a scorecard for every wallet list, the FOMO traders and a replay of every memecoin lane. Every number sits next to the data it came from.
01Run it
node src/cli.mjs research # everything (about a minute plus the lane replay)
node src/cli.mjs research --quick # 4 coins for the liquidation test, no lane replay
node src/cli.mjs research --skip lanes # skip sections: trend, liq, wallets, lanes
node src/cli.mjs research --data /path # another data folderThe result is saved to data/research.json. A run with --skip keeps the other sections from the previous file, so you can refresh the wallets every hour and the slow backtests once a day. The dashboard's Research pane reads the file on its next refresh; nothing has to restart.
Trend and liquidation research download Hyperliquid candles (public API, no key). Wallets use what the collectors saved (Smart wallets); lanes use your recordings (record).
02Trend vs BTC
The volatility-targeted trend book with each leverage profile (safe, growth, aggressive) against buying and holding BTC over the same days, on Hyperliquid daily candles. The pane draws the equity curves on a log scale and lists total return, CAGR, Sharpe, maximum drawdown and the return of every calendar year. A profile whose liquidation price is touched by an intraday wick is marked liquidated.
Example run (BTC, ETH, SOL, 2021-01-07 → 2026-09-27, 2,090 days):
| Profile | Total | Sharpe | Max DD | 2022 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| safe | +211% | 1.16 | 24% | −8% | +23% |
| growth | +362% | 1.16 | 32% | −11% | +31% |
| aggressive | +686% | 1.15 | 44% | −15% | +43% |
| BTC hold | +129% | 0.54 | 77% | −64% | +121% |
How to read it: the trend book loses little in a falling year and lags in a strong bull year. Leverage raises return and drawdown together; the Sharpe ratio stays the same. It is a hedge against crashes, not a way to beat holding in every year.
03Liquidation-map strategies
Two entry ideas built on the liquidation levels, each with three exit rules fixed before looking, pooled over up to eight coins on hourly candles, with 0.13 % round-trip costs:
- Magnet: trade toward the larger liquidation cluster, expecting price to be pulled there.
- Cascade: trade in the direction of a cluster that was just run through.
Each row is compared with the same exits entered at random hours. In the example run (8 coins, about 210 days) no rule beat random entries: averages between −0.22 % and −0.04 % per trade over 428–1,501 trades, t-statistics between −3.3 and −0.3. The pane marks a rule edge only when its average is positive, above random and t ≥ 2.
Use the liquidation map for risk: where a stop would sit inside a crowd of liquidations, how much leverage is stacked near the price. As an entry signal it did not survive costs.
04Wallets
The merged wallet book (pump.fun stream, GeckoTerminal pool trades, FOMO's fee wallet): trades read, wallets seen, wallets in profit, the smart list, and how many wallets were excluded as bots, snipers, dust or token creators. The top 25 wallets by PnL show realised and open profit separately, with links to Solscan.
The out-of-sample line is the test that matters: smart wallets are chosen on the first half of the data and judged on the second. In the example run 4 wallets chosen that way averaged +1.1 % per round over 129 rounds, while the other 42,489 wallets averaged −4.6 %. Four wallets is a small sample; more collection hours make it firmer.
A large open profit is valued at the last traded price. Thin memecoins often cannot be sold at that price. Wallets with a few rounds are luck until the out-of-sample test says otherwise.
05Wallet sources
Every list you import (KOL trackers, leaderboards, FOMO's top traders, a list from a post) gets a row: how many addresses it listed, how many could be judged on your recorded trades (copyable wallets with at least 3 rounds), their average return per round and the share that were profitable, next to everyone else. A source is marked beats crowd only when at least 5 of its wallets were judged and they did better than the rest. Import and pull commands: Smart wallets.
06Memecoin lanes
A replay of your recorded pump.fun stream through every lane as configured, fees and latency included: trades, win rate, average return, PnL, t-statistic, costs, and how much the price moved after the exit on average. In the example run (740,805 events over about 18 hours) the graduation lane averaged −4.7 % over 20 trades and the smart lane −14.1 % over 21 (t −2.2). A walk-forward sweep of the smart lane found no configuration that held on newer launches, so the defaults stay.
That is what the lanes are for: each is a hypothesis with a small ticket, measured on its own. Keep a lane that loses on paper, off; record more hours and sweep it (how) before trusting any setting.
07Keep it fresh
# crontab: wallets every hour, everything else once a day
15 * * * * cd /opt/outrider && node src/cli.mjs research --skip trend,liq,lanes
40 4 * * * cd /opt/outrider && node src/cli.mjs researchThe numbers on this page are examples from one run on 2026-09-28. Yours depend on the dates, the coins and how long your collectors and recorder have run. None of them is a forecast.